This is a post about the lack of business. In fact, in many ways, business has never been easier to get. As you know I'm the best so it's not hard for Bear Financial to get new business. The slowdown comes from the banks.
I once thought that there was going to be a mass conspiracy to get rid of wholesale brokers all together and that the banks wanted to only have retail. But after all that I've seen in the last few weeks, I think if you asked the banks what do you really want, they'd tell you that they wouldn't lend another dime to anyone. Retail is running 75 - 90 days from some of my reports and this appraisal rule, HVCC (which I beg all of you to write your representatives to get rid of) is only making the experience harder for the borrowers.
Please hang in there. I do believe things will get worse before they get better but loans are still being funded, we just have to fight twice as hard and wait three times as long. Rates are slowing inching back down and hopefully someone will realize there is a lot of money to be made in the lending business. They just need someone who can look at files and borrowers as individuals and not lump everyone in these pigeon holes. There is money to be made and usually when that happens someone gets wise and figures out how to make that money. I just hope they do it sooner than later.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Thursday, June 18, 2009
ups and downs
The Bear is back. Sorry for the delay.
Let's not waste time, let's get to work. First off, here is a quick link that just repeats everything that I've been saying for the past 2 months.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-to-pounce-on-lower-mortgage-rates
the bottom line is that the Market is crazy. I don't think anyone knows what they're doing and there is no clear answer or direction. It seems that even the people in the Fed that are supposed to be steering the ship are just hanging on to make sure we don't capsize.
I feel that we are in for a drop in the market and for news and REALITY peak its head. I don't know of one person or company that is doing well. I feel for every "good" economic indicator there are even more bad ones that are not talked about as much. For instance today it was said that the number of unemployment claims dropped, the fact is that new claims rose but people currently on unemployment have dropped mainly because their time was up. It's not like thousands of people got jobs last week. Their 12 months or 24 months or whatever the time frame they are under is up. That being said, yes there are less people on unemployment and now more that still don't have jobs and will be getting nothing. This should lead to more problems. Not very "good" after all, is it?
At least we can say, Go Lakers!!! Perfect scene yesterday. Ending the parade at the Coliseum is just like the government did during Greek times. Keep the masses in check by throwing a big party for them to go to. People must be out of work to have 500k+ show up on a Wednesday.
Let's not waste time, let's get to work. First off, here is a quick link that just repeats everything that I've been saying for the past 2 months.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-to-pounce-on-lower-mortgage-rates
the bottom line is that the Market is crazy. I don't think anyone knows what they're doing and there is no clear answer or direction. It seems that even the people in the Fed that are supposed to be steering the ship are just hanging on to make sure we don't capsize.
I feel that we are in for a drop in the market and for news and REALITY peak its head. I don't know of one person or company that is doing well. I feel for every "good" economic indicator there are even more bad ones that are not talked about as much. For instance today it was said that the number of unemployment claims dropped, the fact is that new claims rose but people currently on unemployment have dropped mainly because their time was up. It's not like thousands of people got jobs last week. Their 12 months or 24 months or whatever the time frame they are under is up. That being said, yes there are less people on unemployment and now more that still don't have jobs and will be getting nothing. This should lead to more problems. Not very "good" after all, is it?
At least we can say, Go Lakers!!! Perfect scene yesterday. Ending the parade at the Coliseum is just like the government did during Greek times. Keep the masses in check by throwing a big party for them to go to. People must be out of work to have 500k+ show up on a Wednesday.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Random Thoughts
Random.
That seems to be the way I'd put this market. No one knows what's happening or really what's going on. I feel that there is a tremendous amount of sheep fallowing the blind leaders. Panic will drive a market up hundreds of points and the same blind fear of the unknown or belief in what others might be doing will drive the market into a tailspin.
I've been talking about a summer crash for weeks now. I felt that I was going just on a gut feeling but now there seems to be more and more people that are saying the same thing.
It's funny, because while rates have (and historically) been good, they where so low that there was a ton of pressure to get every one's loan done. All the lenders are backed up and many are even going past the RESPA 30 day requirement to have a decision. I could talk for hours on why and how this is affecting everything and one but maybe later. Back to my main point here, I was hoping that we'd get a small raise in the rates. "Give me a week or two with higher rates, just so we / I can get caught up." Well be careful for what you wish for. We got a spike in rates this week. Most people are trying to find a cliff to leap off of, but I've got to remind myself I asked for this. With my firm belief, and over the past few days this has happened, rates will come back down. Now is the time to get caught up.
Now is the time to get those apps in. Lenders truly are taking sometimes 60+ days to get some deals done. There are a lot of problems. For instance this new HVCC appraisal rule is HORRIBLE. I beg all that read this to write your congress, Senate and president to get rid of this rule or at least make it work within reality. I hope to put together an idea that can incorporate the "thought" behind this rule with some reality so that if this is what the law makers want, it can work. Back to my example, most every lender wants an appraisal to be submitted with a complete loan package. Well if they insist that the appraisal can't have comps past 90 days, but don't underwrite a file for 30 days, that's only really a 60 day window for comps. So often I'm finding that a lender will kick a loan out or charge the borrower with a review fee because the appraisal is old and the value has dropped or there are no current comps to support the file, so the lender would rather decline it than risk approving it and not being able to re-sell it on the secondary market. This is horrible for the borrowers and for us trying to work within the system and the long run for the lenders because they're not making as much money and passing up on helping lower people's payments and in turn stimulating the economy, which is what this is all about.
We've got so many problems right now. Even if and when we solve them, these answers will cause more issues that will need to be addressed. But if rates go up now, from mortgages to business loans, you'd might as well pack your bags because we're all going to be screwed.
It is late and I know I'm bouncing around here, but just be patient. As always read further than the first line of these financial articles. And call or write me if you have any questions.
That seems to be the way I'd put this market. No one knows what's happening or really what's going on. I feel that there is a tremendous amount of sheep fallowing the blind leaders. Panic will drive a market up hundreds of points and the same blind fear of the unknown or belief in what others might be doing will drive the market into a tailspin.
I've been talking about a summer crash for weeks now. I felt that I was going just on a gut feeling but now there seems to be more and more people that are saying the same thing.
It's funny, because while rates have (and historically) been good, they where so low that there was a ton of pressure to get every one's loan done. All the lenders are backed up and many are even going past the RESPA 30 day requirement to have a decision. I could talk for hours on why and how this is affecting everything and one but maybe later. Back to my main point here, I was hoping that we'd get a small raise in the rates. "Give me a week or two with higher rates, just so we / I can get caught up." Well be careful for what you wish for. We got a spike in rates this week. Most people are trying to find a cliff to leap off of, but I've got to remind myself I asked for this. With my firm belief, and over the past few days this has happened, rates will come back down. Now is the time to get caught up.
Now is the time to get those apps in. Lenders truly are taking sometimes 60+ days to get some deals done. There are a lot of problems. For instance this new HVCC appraisal rule is HORRIBLE. I beg all that read this to write your congress, Senate and president to get rid of this rule or at least make it work within reality. I hope to put together an idea that can incorporate the "thought" behind this rule with some reality so that if this is what the law makers want, it can work. Back to my example, most every lender wants an appraisal to be submitted with a complete loan package. Well if they insist that the appraisal can't have comps past 90 days, but don't underwrite a file for 30 days, that's only really a 60 day window for comps. So often I'm finding that a lender will kick a loan out or charge the borrower with a review fee because the appraisal is old and the value has dropped or there are no current comps to support the file, so the lender would rather decline it than risk approving it and not being able to re-sell it on the secondary market. This is horrible for the borrowers and for us trying to work within the system and the long run for the lenders because they're not making as much money and passing up on helping lower people's payments and in turn stimulating the economy, which is what this is all about.
We've got so many problems right now. Even if and when we solve them, these answers will cause more issues that will need to be addressed. But if rates go up now, from mortgages to business loans, you'd might as well pack your bags because we're all going to be screwed.
It is late and I know I'm bouncing around here, but just be patient. As always read further than the first line of these financial articles. And call or write me if you have any questions.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
GM Fallout
Sunday night and I really don't know what's going to happen with the GM BK. I'm curious to see what happens next week. This is so big, it's not really called a BK even though we all know it to be one. I've heard and read a ton of theories but at the end of the day I don't think anyone knows what all this will mean.
I do know that it looks like a lot of people are going to loose their jobs. My prediction seems to be unfolding about a summer crash. Almost everyone, except the government, seems to think we're going to be in trouble for at least another six months. Then, who knows about a recovery? That's a whole other mess.
It should be an interesting week. Just remember, like I always say, read the articles. You're going to see the headlines but the truth will be somewhere in the text. The roller coaster ride isn't over yet.
Just hold my hand and we'll get though this. Patience and a level head is the key.
I do know that it looks like a lot of people are going to loose their jobs. My prediction seems to be unfolding about a summer crash. Almost everyone, except the government, seems to think we're going to be in trouble for at least another six months. Then, who knows about a recovery? That's a whole other mess.
It should be an interesting week. Just remember, like I always say, read the articles. You're going to see the headlines but the truth will be somewhere in the text. The roller coaster ride isn't over yet.
Just hold my hand and we'll get though this. Patience and a level head is the key.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Panic?!?! The roof is on fire but the ground is ice cold.
As you've probably seen, rates shot up this week. I say, and as always I could be wrong, it doesn't matter. First off, rates are still good and secondly, rates will come back down.
I've read many articles the past few days and what I've taken away is that the market is showing small signs of recovery. But that's what gets the headlines. I ask of you to read the whole articles because they paint a different picture.
For example, you'll hear home sales have gone up 3%, but you don't hear the values have gone down 15%. You don't hear that the current inventory for sale has increased 8% or that 45% of the sold houses are foreclosures / short sales (and this number is only going to rise).
If rates go up, we're seriously screwed. Some of the reasons for the "experts" to say that we're on the road to recovery is because of people refinancing and being able to purchase homes at low rates. An increase of .5 - 1% in rate will stop that in it's tracks.
Even if the government has to step in and buy up more mortgage back securities or treasuries, which we'll pay for it in the future, it will save us now. I can't tell you if that's the right thing to do in the long run, but it's the only thing to do in the short run. The Fed won't let this chance at recovery just slip away.
I've read many articles the past few days and what I've taken away is that the market is showing small signs of recovery. But that's what gets the headlines. I ask of you to read the whole articles because they paint a different picture.
For example, you'll hear home sales have gone up 3%, but you don't hear the values have gone down 15%. You don't hear that the current inventory for sale has increased 8% or that 45% of the sold houses are foreclosures / short sales (and this number is only going to rise).
If rates go up, we're seriously screwed. Some of the reasons for the "experts" to say that we're on the road to recovery is because of people refinancing and being able to purchase homes at low rates. An increase of .5 - 1% in rate will stop that in it's tracks.
Even if the government has to step in and buy up more mortgage back securities or treasuries, which we'll pay for it in the future, it will save us now. I can't tell you if that's the right thing to do in the long run, but it's the only thing to do in the short run. The Fed won't let this chance at recovery just slip away.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Something smells (2)
I just read that B of A (owner of Countrywide) needs 34 BILLION dollars. I told you all that there is something not right about the info that is being pushed out to us. There will be more to come, but you'll see. We're far from bottom and even if we are, it's going to be a long time to come out. Check out this article
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090506/bs_nm/us_bankofamerica_9
I don't know why, and I have no reason to say this, but I just don't trust in Bernanke. At least with Greenspan, you knew he was bullshit-ing. You'd watch his speeches and he would never answer a question strait. Bernanke says things that just feel forced. Like "We'll see a bottom in 2009." Why, where's the proof for that?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090506/bs_nm/us_bankofamerica_9
I don't know why, and I have no reason to say this, but I just don't trust in Bernanke. At least with Greenspan, you knew he was bullshit-ing. You'd watch his speeches and he would never answer a question strait. Bernanke says things that just feel forced. Like "We'll see a bottom in 2009." Why, where's the proof for that?
Something smells
I had this great post sitting for a few days but got so busy now it's outdated. Fortunately, I've been busy, unforunately you've missed my words of wisdom. Well here's a quick doozy.
I don't believe all this good economic news. I hope to god I'm wrong but it can't be true. From someone that in the trenches I see nothing but lower values and hard to get loans. I'll address a few issues and feel free to discuss with me more but here we go:
"They" say that home sales have increased. Yes, that's true, but those are of sales of homes in Palmdale and Landcaster that are foreclosures selling for 100k. And a lot of these are being bought by first time investors hoping to cash in, which won't happen and that's a whole other speech.
"Values have increased for the first time in...", bull shit! I'm having appraisal issues everyday about values being too high and appraisal reviews are cutting values all over the place. If you under price a sale soooo low that you get multiple offers and the end value is higher than what you originally offered, then yes "value" went up. But did it really, no because you started so low. Almost every deal I've done or heard about from reps, we're all having value issues. So I'm still seeing a decline.
"We're seeing signs that we'll hit the bottom in 2009". If I fall down a well, eventually I'll hit the bottom. If I'm not dead, I'll have a broken leg / knocked unconsious / AND STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WELL!!! Is that anything to cheer about? How do I get out? How fast will it take me to get out if all my tools are gone and I've got morons trying to figure out how to save me?
I know this is a little depressing but it's the truth. I've got inside sources that have said that Countrywide employees have been told that the company made more money in the first quarter of 2009 than 2008. This is impossible. They're either cooking the books, ignoring tremendous loss, or using TARP funds to mask the true loss. How can it be even possible for a bank to say this?
My theory is that they want to make sure that they don't have more people killing themselves and get people to come to work in the morning. Again, hope I'm wrong.
I don't believe all this good economic news. I hope to god I'm wrong but it can't be true. From someone that in the trenches I see nothing but lower values and hard to get loans. I'll address a few issues and feel free to discuss with me more but here we go:
"They" say that home sales have increased. Yes, that's true, but those are of sales of homes in Palmdale and Landcaster that are foreclosures selling for 100k. And a lot of these are being bought by first time investors hoping to cash in, which won't happen and that's a whole other speech.
"Values have increased for the first time in...", bull shit! I'm having appraisal issues everyday about values being too high and appraisal reviews are cutting values all over the place. If you under price a sale soooo low that you get multiple offers and the end value is higher than what you originally offered, then yes "value" went up. But did it really, no because you started so low. Almost every deal I've done or heard about from reps, we're all having value issues. So I'm still seeing a decline.
"We're seeing signs that we'll hit the bottom in 2009". If I fall down a well, eventually I'll hit the bottom. If I'm not dead, I'll have a broken leg / knocked unconsious / AND STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WELL!!! Is that anything to cheer about? How do I get out? How fast will it take me to get out if all my tools are gone and I've got morons trying to figure out how to save me?
I know this is a little depressing but it's the truth. I've got inside sources that have said that Countrywide employees have been told that the company made more money in the first quarter of 2009 than 2008. This is impossible. They're either cooking the books, ignoring tremendous loss, or using TARP funds to mask the true loss. How can it be even possible for a bank to say this?
My theory is that they want to make sure that they don't have more people killing themselves and get people to come to work in the morning. Again, hope I'm wrong.
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