Thursday, May 28, 2009

Panic?!?! The roof is on fire but the ground is ice cold.

As you've probably seen, rates shot up this week. I say, and as always I could be wrong, it doesn't matter. First off, rates are still good and secondly, rates will come back down.

I've read many articles the past few days and what I've taken away is that the market is showing small signs of recovery. But that's what gets the headlines. I ask of you to read the whole articles because they paint a different picture.

For example, you'll hear home sales have gone up 3%, but you don't hear the values have gone down 15%. You don't hear that the current inventory for sale has increased 8% or that 45% of the sold houses are foreclosures / short sales (and this number is only going to rise).

If rates go up, we're seriously screwed. Some of the reasons for the "experts" to say that we're on the road to recovery is because of people refinancing and being able to purchase homes at low rates. An increase of .5 - 1% in rate will stop that in it's tracks.

Even if the government has to step in and buy up more mortgage back securities or treasuries, which we'll pay for it in the future, it will save us now. I can't tell you if that's the right thing to do in the long run, but it's the only thing to do in the short run. The Fed won't let this chance at recovery just slip away.

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