Sunday night and I really don't know what's going to happen with the GM BK. I'm curious to see what happens next week. This is so big, it's not really called a BK even though we all know it to be one. I've heard and read a ton of theories but at the end of the day I don't think anyone knows what all this will mean.
I do know that it looks like a lot of people are going to loose their jobs. My prediction seems to be unfolding about a summer crash. Almost everyone, except the government, seems to think we're going to be in trouble for at least another six months. Then, who knows about a recovery? That's a whole other mess.
It should be an interesting week. Just remember, like I always say, read the articles. You're going to see the headlines but the truth will be somewhere in the text. The roller coaster ride isn't over yet.
Just hold my hand and we'll get though this. Patience and a level head is the key.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Panic?!?! The roof is on fire but the ground is ice cold.
As you've probably seen, rates shot up this week. I say, and as always I could be wrong, it doesn't matter. First off, rates are still good and secondly, rates will come back down.
I've read many articles the past few days and what I've taken away is that the market is showing small signs of recovery. But that's what gets the headlines. I ask of you to read the whole articles because they paint a different picture.
For example, you'll hear home sales have gone up 3%, but you don't hear the values have gone down 15%. You don't hear that the current inventory for sale has increased 8% or that 45% of the sold houses are foreclosures / short sales (and this number is only going to rise).
If rates go up, we're seriously screwed. Some of the reasons for the "experts" to say that we're on the road to recovery is because of people refinancing and being able to purchase homes at low rates. An increase of .5 - 1% in rate will stop that in it's tracks.
Even if the government has to step in and buy up more mortgage back securities or treasuries, which we'll pay for it in the future, it will save us now. I can't tell you if that's the right thing to do in the long run, but it's the only thing to do in the short run. The Fed won't let this chance at recovery just slip away.
I've read many articles the past few days and what I've taken away is that the market is showing small signs of recovery. But that's what gets the headlines. I ask of you to read the whole articles because they paint a different picture.
For example, you'll hear home sales have gone up 3%, but you don't hear the values have gone down 15%. You don't hear that the current inventory for sale has increased 8% or that 45% of the sold houses are foreclosures / short sales (and this number is only going to rise).
If rates go up, we're seriously screwed. Some of the reasons for the "experts" to say that we're on the road to recovery is because of people refinancing and being able to purchase homes at low rates. An increase of .5 - 1% in rate will stop that in it's tracks.
Even if the government has to step in and buy up more mortgage back securities or treasuries, which we'll pay for it in the future, it will save us now. I can't tell you if that's the right thing to do in the long run, but it's the only thing to do in the short run. The Fed won't let this chance at recovery just slip away.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Something smells (2)
I just read that B of A (owner of Countrywide) needs 34 BILLION dollars. I told you all that there is something not right about the info that is being pushed out to us. There will be more to come, but you'll see. We're far from bottom and even if we are, it's going to be a long time to come out. Check out this article
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090506/bs_nm/us_bankofamerica_9
I don't know why, and I have no reason to say this, but I just don't trust in Bernanke. At least with Greenspan, you knew he was bullshit-ing. You'd watch his speeches and he would never answer a question strait. Bernanke says things that just feel forced. Like "We'll see a bottom in 2009." Why, where's the proof for that?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090506/bs_nm/us_bankofamerica_9
I don't know why, and I have no reason to say this, but I just don't trust in Bernanke. At least with Greenspan, you knew he was bullshit-ing. You'd watch his speeches and he would never answer a question strait. Bernanke says things that just feel forced. Like "We'll see a bottom in 2009." Why, where's the proof for that?
Something smells
I had this great post sitting for a few days but got so busy now it's outdated. Fortunately, I've been busy, unforunately you've missed my words of wisdom. Well here's a quick doozy.
I don't believe all this good economic news. I hope to god I'm wrong but it can't be true. From someone that in the trenches I see nothing but lower values and hard to get loans. I'll address a few issues and feel free to discuss with me more but here we go:
"They" say that home sales have increased. Yes, that's true, but those are of sales of homes in Palmdale and Landcaster that are foreclosures selling for 100k. And a lot of these are being bought by first time investors hoping to cash in, which won't happen and that's a whole other speech.
"Values have increased for the first time in...", bull shit! I'm having appraisal issues everyday about values being too high and appraisal reviews are cutting values all over the place. If you under price a sale soooo low that you get multiple offers and the end value is higher than what you originally offered, then yes "value" went up. But did it really, no because you started so low. Almost every deal I've done or heard about from reps, we're all having value issues. So I'm still seeing a decline.
"We're seeing signs that we'll hit the bottom in 2009". If I fall down a well, eventually I'll hit the bottom. If I'm not dead, I'll have a broken leg / knocked unconsious / AND STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WELL!!! Is that anything to cheer about? How do I get out? How fast will it take me to get out if all my tools are gone and I've got morons trying to figure out how to save me?
I know this is a little depressing but it's the truth. I've got inside sources that have said that Countrywide employees have been told that the company made more money in the first quarter of 2009 than 2008. This is impossible. They're either cooking the books, ignoring tremendous loss, or using TARP funds to mask the true loss. How can it be even possible for a bank to say this?
My theory is that they want to make sure that they don't have more people killing themselves and get people to come to work in the morning. Again, hope I'm wrong.
I don't believe all this good economic news. I hope to god I'm wrong but it can't be true. From someone that in the trenches I see nothing but lower values and hard to get loans. I'll address a few issues and feel free to discuss with me more but here we go:
"They" say that home sales have increased. Yes, that's true, but those are of sales of homes in Palmdale and Landcaster that are foreclosures selling for 100k. And a lot of these are being bought by first time investors hoping to cash in, which won't happen and that's a whole other speech.
"Values have increased for the first time in...", bull shit! I'm having appraisal issues everyday about values being too high and appraisal reviews are cutting values all over the place. If you under price a sale soooo low that you get multiple offers and the end value is higher than what you originally offered, then yes "value" went up. But did it really, no because you started so low. Almost every deal I've done or heard about from reps, we're all having value issues. So I'm still seeing a decline.
"We're seeing signs that we'll hit the bottom in 2009". If I fall down a well, eventually I'll hit the bottom. If I'm not dead, I'll have a broken leg / knocked unconsious / AND STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WELL!!! Is that anything to cheer about? How do I get out? How fast will it take me to get out if all my tools are gone and I've got morons trying to figure out how to save me?
I know this is a little depressing but it's the truth. I've got inside sources that have said that Countrywide employees have been told that the company made more money in the first quarter of 2009 than 2008. This is impossible. They're either cooking the books, ignoring tremendous loss, or using TARP funds to mask the true loss. How can it be even possible for a bank to say this?
My theory is that they want to make sure that they don't have more people killing themselves and get people to come to work in the morning. Again, hope I'm wrong.
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