Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Demand?

I'm reading a lot today about the demand for products was up slightly more than expected. Some people will rally behind the fact that this has to do with the housing market possibly finding a bottom and people are spending more money. These would all be great things if they where true.

I personally see things a little different. It's always curious to me to hear people speculate on the market off of pure numbers and no where do they bring the human element into their calculations.

Let's touch on auto demand. Cash for Clunkers. Auto makers basically shut down production because no one wanted to buy cars. This in turn left a ton of cars on your local lot just sitting. All of the sudden the government comes out with this plan to give people free money for their old cars, which just happens to be enough for a down payment on a new car (when I say new, I mean one that's been sitting because no one else wants or can afford to buy it). Now you see a short term gain and demand for autos. Car lots are starting to need to refill their inventory. So car companies need to crank out some new cars again. Is this a long term solution or a short term fix. Will the people that they hire back be full time or only last a few months until the Cash for Clunkers is over, which that program has run out of money and the senate needs to approve another 2 billion dollars to keep it going.

This shows where you can have profits but in reality they are fake profits. This doesn't seem like a sustainable demand source. So I question the fact that this small spike in sales and demand is really a sign of an improving economy.

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